Sunday, December 31, 2006

“First-time Customer; I Give You Best Price”

I spent my second day in Beijing shopping for 5 hours in the Silk Market, a very popular tourist bazaar. It is in a one and half year old building with 6 floors (before that the shops were on the street).

I bought the following items: Prada shoes (150 RMB), Louis Vuitton tennis shoes (200 RMB), 2 Polo Shirts (45 RMB total), Armani dress shirt (40 RMB), 2 Cashmere Burberry Scarves (90 RMB total), and a stocking cap (20 RMB). Ash bought very similar items, as well as two silk bed sets for 400 RMB.

My first experience in the shop was pretty ridiculous—Ash, Avik and I walked in and immediately we were bombarded with question from the merchants: “Would you like Polo shirt?”; “Nice bag for your girlfriend?”; “You want shoes?” I was pretty overwhelmed at first—I don’t really like talking to salespeople in the U.S., but this is much more intense. If you stand still for more than a few seconds you are guaranteed to have someone grab your arm and drag you to their store.

When you finally find something you want, then you have to start bargaining. For something like shoes, they will start off with a price of about 800-1000 RMB. Then they will ask you for a price, and in general it is safe to knock off between 75-90%. They will then stare at you and tell you that you must be crazy, that it’s not possible, and ask you for your “real price.” The key is to stick with your original price while they bid themselves down. Most likely this will require walking away from the shop, because there are so many shops with the same gear that they will drop their price to keep you. Once they are in your general range then you can raise your bid to come to a compromise. Ash and I would do this once for an item, and once we figured out the general “best” price, we would use this to negotiate with other merchants. We got some items for so cheap that other merchants we spoke to that day didn’t believe we bought them for so cheap.

Ash and I got lunch in the Silk Market and met two women from Britain, one of which recently gave birth to a baby girl. She told us that she is going to move from Beijing soon because the pollution is so bad. She told us that on Stage 4 days children are not allowed outside, and on Stage 5 days no one can go outside. The government actually decides which days will be “blue sky” days—days when no factories will run to cut down on pollution. For the Olympics, no cars will be allowed in the city for a month, and all construction will be stopped.

Later that night the group went to a club which was okay, but afterwards I got to play the drums at another bar.

Friday, December 29, 2006

Beijing Part 1

Beijing has been crazy! We just got internet to the rest of our world restored yesterday because of the Earthquake in the south. Hopefully I will have more time to discuss what has happened and post some pictures--we're leaving pretty soon for the Forbidden City and the Great Wall. Yesterday we met with Motorola, MTV China, the largest Chinese film studio, and Sina.com, China's largest portal. I'll have more time to post tonight.

Cheers,
Justin

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

My Visit to Palm

I went to Palm's headquarters in Sunnyvale on Wednesday, December 20 for an MBA recruiting visit. They recruit MBAs from all over the West Coast for their internships in Business Development, Program Management and Software. During the summer an MBA would work with the product manager, who essentially "owns" the product, software or device. An intern works with engineering, sales, support and marketing to research market trends and determine the end user scenarios.

Palm's number one priority is user experience--in fact, the software product manager who ran the recruiting session emphasized that Palm is not a tech company, but instead a consumer company. And even though they produce the best smartphones (PDA+phone), they focus on the phone first. Another significant difference between Blackberry and Palm is that Palm tries to design their phones for end users instead of IT technicians.

Some of the projects interns have done in the past include:
-Macintosh strategy
-WiFi/Bluetooth sync
-DRM (digital rights management) strategy
-How to target new customers
-Web browser strategy

An intern performs a variety of functions from deciding whether to build or acquire, to analyzing what aspects of the value chain Palm should control. Fifty percent of an intern's time is spent on this type of strategic work, with the other fifty percent spent assisting the product manager (creating market research reports, etc.).

A couple of issues that I brought up that have not been sufficiently resolved include: Motorola's recent acquisition of Good Technology (Good is used on the Treo for email exchange, but Motorola is obviously a major competitor with Palm); the manufacturer of the actual Palm handsets has also become a competitor with Palm; Palm has not pursued a WiFi strategy, and in fact I got the sense that they won't until "they have to."

This is one theme that really drove home from my meeting with Palm; they are not focused on technology, and it seems that they wait until consumers ask for a technology before focusing on it. This is an issue because by the time the majority of consumers want to adopt a technology, a major competitor probably will have introduced it on their smartphones. Palm can only rely on their own brand name for so long, and even that has begun to erode with the introduction of the Blackberry and the Q.

Wednesday, December 6, 2006

Music Industry

I had a very interesting meeting with Dwight Wardlaw, a friend of mine in the Sloan program, who started his own record label. He invited me and a few other MBAs to talk about his experiences in creating the record label and working with the associated companies in the music ecosystem. His major artist is Gary Kyle (checkout video at youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKlCDaF7_nE).

First we discussed the ecosystem. Normally there are three major players: Record Label, Publishing, and Management.

Record Labels are run very inefficiently (no surprise!); an example is how they recoup their initial investment in a band. Typically they will pay for all recording costs upfront, as well as give the band an advance. Recording costs are approximately $250,000 for a major record label, with an additional $50,000 for the advance. The band doesn't receive a penny until the record label has recouped these investments. From here it is easy to see how to game the system--allocate as much cost as you can to the recording expense. This is exactly what the record labels do. They charge as much overhead as they can to the "recording costs", and the bands get practically nothing. For example, Dwight was able to professionally record his artist for a fourth of what a major record label would have charged.

Next is publishing, and basically the big mistake a band can make is lose their publishing rights--a friend of Dwight's is unable to release her album (it has been ready for over a year!) because of making this mistake.

Management covers a lot of different aspects of the band--personal manager, publicist, and distribution. Obviously, distribution used to be much more difficult than it is now, with digital music download sites like itunes, but it is still essential to sell albums (through commercial sites and at concert venues). All album sales are reported to sound scan, which is used by Billboard to rank the top albums and singles. This is the most common way for a band to build the credibility needed to "be discovered."

The rest of the meeting we discussed the innovations we see occuring in the music industry. For example, the website www.pandora.com is leading the way in music discovery for consumers. Another site, www.platinumblueinc.com, analyzes songs to determine the probability of them becoming a mainstream success. For $10, you can analyze a single song and receive a report within 5 days. Another interesting site is www.sellaband.com; from here you can purchase equity in a band in $10 increments. Once the band has raised $50,000 they can record an album with professional equipment, and every one who invested in the band receives a CD. From there the songs are downloaded from the site for free, with ad revenues from site traffic shared between the band and shareholders. It's a nice little Web 2.0 version of the record label industry.

MySpace has obviously changed the way bands build fan bases, but a very interesting development is occuring on a more radical social networking platform: Second Life. Real bands such as Duran, Duran and Talib Kweli have played to virtual audiences in the online world (http://www.wired.com/news/technology/internet/0,71593-0.html). For those unfamiliar with Second Life, you should check out a podcast created by one of my classmates: http://iinnovate.blogspot.com/. Search for the interview with Philip Rosedale, Founder of Second Life. Don't believe that an online virtual game has monetization possibilities? Check this article out: http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/archives/2006/11/second_lifes_fi.html?chan=search

I know Stanford will be hosting a panel of music industry experts in January--it will be interesting to see what they think lies ahead for the future of music.

Sunday, December 3, 2006

Fantasy Basketball

So I've noticed that I spend an inordinate amount of time playing fantasy basketball... and a few of my fellow GSBers have asked me for some advice on how best to run a team. Here are a couple of my thoughts:

Scan the box scores every day
-This takes only a couple minutes, but is essential for understanding who is getting playing time, who is starting, and who is putting up significant numbers.

Research the draft
-Not really going to help anybody right now, but the single most important part of the Fantasy NBA season is the draft. Middle to late round sleepers make or break your season.

Watch basketball games
-Silly, but a lot of fantasy players don't actually watch the games. This is especially important in the first week of the season--most of the breakout players I have picked up from the waiver wire in the last couple of years have been immediately after a game or while I was watching the game.

Predict who will get Center eligibility
-I have used this tactic so often in my leagues that managers who have played with me for awhile will actually not make trades with me because they know if I want their player, he very well may be center-eligible soon. Keep track of who starts, and learn the eligibility rules for your league. Centers are extremely valuable (though not as much this year as in previous years).

Try to make "two-for-one" trades
-Two for one trades are great because you can't play everyone on your team everyday--depending on the league, you will have at least a couple bench spots, so I'd rather have a superstar I play everyday, then 2 mid level stars that I spot start. There are a couple ways to accomplish this--the traditional two-for-one, which most managers are reluctant to make now because they have learned that two-for-ones aren't the best moves, and the two-for-two, that involves the other teams worst player. Essentially these are two-for-ones, especially if there is a player on waivers that you are looking to pick up anyway.

I'm sure there will be some future posts on more strategy involving Fantasy, but I definitely welcome any opinions on this matter, or if you disagree with my post.
Justin

Sunday, November 26, 2006

GMAT Prep

So a bunch of people have asked me about how I prepared for the GMAT, so here is some of my advice:

Give yourself at least a couple months to prepare if you're gunning for a top score--I spent at least an hour a day preparing (thank you BART public transit), while also spending a sporadic 2-3 hour time period to take a practice exam.

I didn't take any classes, and from what I have heard they really are only valuable in two cases:
1. If you need extensive work on your quantitative skills (more than review)
2. You need to be forced to study

However, if you're not taking a class, it is useful to have someone to study with, if at the very least to keep you honest. A coworker of mine also studied for the GMAT at the same time I did, and while we rarely sat down and studied together, we would quiz each other on some of the more difficult quant questions that we came upon.

Kaplan and Princeton Review are NOT the same. From my observation, and those of others I have talked to, Kaplan is much more difficult in math. Princeton review might be a little more difficult in verbal, but overall the scores I got from Kaplan were significantly lower than my actual score (Princeton Review was about the same score on average).

One thing I recommend for those who are starting the studying process is to download the PowerPrep software and take one of the two GMAT tests early on. Then a week before you take the actual exam, take the second practice test. I think most people agree that this test is the most accurate descriptor of your score (for me, I scored exactly the same on the real test--even the same on the verbal and quant sections!).

The test is not as important as I thought it was--do not compare it to the LSAT (which combined with gpa can predict acceptance remarkably well--I don't even know why they ask for essays!). What is much more important for business schools are the essays, and depending upon how many schools you apply to, you will probably spend more time on them than studying for the GMAT.

If you have any other questions, I'd be happy to talk!
Justin

Business in Iowa

I met up with 2 bankers this past week while I was home in Iowa for Thanksgiving break. The first was Adam Claypool, and investment banker for BDFS. I didn't even know there were I-bankers in Iowa until I spoke with my mom about a company she had invested in through him. His bank works with small to medium sized companies ($5 - 500 million). They specialize in providing very hands-on service, and work only 12-15 deals a year (though they turn down a few hundred a year). I really have no idea how this compares to other midwest investment banks (say Chicago), but I assume they are much smaller. One very interesting thing I learned is that Acuity Ventures, a venture capital firm in San Jose, has worked with BDFS to move a few of their startups to Des Moines. One of the companies they have moved is Gcommerce, a provider of supply chain management software. Basically they have created a web-based software program to connect contractors with distributors, and distributors with suppliers, to reduce lag times and implement just-in-time manufacturing (think MIT's beer game). A couple of observations:
1. I thought this already existed, so I'm wondering how much competition they have (Adam said they are currently only a few million dollar company so they are just getting started) .
2. The move to Des Moines has it obvious benefits (cheap rent, cheap labor, closer locale to many manufacturing plants), but one major problem with Iowa is the amount of brain drain it is going through--the best engineers and scientists born in Iowa are moving away, so there is a lack of technically skilled people for Gcommerce to hire.

My second meeting was with a commercial banker in Ankeny. He is one of the founders of the bank, which is obviously much smaller than Wells Fargo or Principal, but is still one of the largest banks in Ankeny with over $100 million in deposits. Some of the items we discussed:
1. Can't compete with Wells Fargo on price (loan interest rates), so instead focuses on speed--he can authorize a million dollar loan same day, where other banks may take a few weeks for processing to go through.
2. While they have internet banking, they focus on their brick and mortar service, which he acknowledged is not efficient. However, for a bank in Iowa, the personal touch of a bank is very valuable.
3. He was amazed how easily it was for me to get student loans online--that it did not really even matter to me what bank I got them from, and that I never had to physically sign a document.
4. Basically this very profitable bank is afraid of innovation--they did not implement online services until a competitor did, they did not offer ACH transacting until one of their major clients forced them to, and the banker I talked to still used an adding machine!

Monday, November 13, 2006

Why has eBay been so successful?

1. Serves the long tail--there was no existing market for many of these products (beanie babies, collectible cars). Contrary to many online sites which just mirrored the offline world, this sector was too fragmented to exist offline--it could only exist on the internet.

2. Network effect business--I can not stress how valuable this is for growth. First mover advantage is huge. Once competitors have the ability to imitate, the competition is over.

3. Community of users--first three years of growth, management was hands-off and let the community lead management to correct strategic decisions. Interesting to note that Meg (see below) eventually had to take control of management decisions as the company grew--best examples are acquisitions and removal of illegal and harmful items (guns, etc).

4. Meg Whitman--I visited a class at Harvard last winter, and the discussion was on whether Meg Whitman was lucky or good. I think she was good. The argument against her was that she just happened to be at the right place at the right time, and nobody was going to stop the growth of eBay. I disagree; she was intelligent enough to realize that she needed to take a hands-off approach to management. She knew that other than the user community, Pierre Omidyar (founder) was the most important part of eBay. Yet she still offerred a different opinion, and at times vetoed the engineers decisions because she knew how to take the company from where it was to where it was going. I find it very similar to Eric Schmidt (CEO of Google), who was in the same position with Sergey and Brin--he was almost like a baby-sitter, but they needed a baby-sitter, one with passion and vision for where the company was headed.

Where hasn't it been successful?
1. China -- Taobao
2. Japan -- Yahoo! Auctions
3. Korea -- GMarket
Why? Not the first mover, and had not listened to the community. When they first created sites in Asia, the currency was still in dollars, auctions ended at U.S. local times, etc. Gmarket is interesting as well because eBay had dominated the Korean market until GMarket entered with less auctions, and more fixed price sales for in-season products. They also featured real-time price negotiations between buyer and seller (something eBay may be attempting to do with their recent acquisition of Skype).

New areas of growth:
-Real estate
-International sites
-Different auctions
-Localized auctions (think craigslist)
-Mobile alerts, mobile interface

Sunday, November 12, 2006

First Blog

I see this blog as a way for me to somehow organize the amazing amount of ideas that are being created here at Stanford Business School. I have been here only 2 months and have met some of the most fascinating people. Right now, my thoughts have been centered on three career paths/industries: entrepreneurship, e-Commerce, and sports. Ideally, I would like to combine all three, following a path similar to Eric Baker's (GSB '01), when he formed StubHub.com.

One idea I am throwing around is college recruiting software--I have spoken with a classmate of mine who is an assistant coach for a women's soccer team, and there is a lot of room for improving the current software that they use. I am also meeting with the AD of USF (not UCSF, which I mistakenly used in an email to her--oops!), to discuss my idea. One potentially huge issue I have to address is the size of the market for college recruiting software. I spoke with a VC over lunch (he is in the executive education program here at Stanford and also graduated from Carleton in '94), and that was his first concern--while this may be a good idea, the market is probably too small for a VC firm to be interested. Also, how will I be able to convince teams to allocate resources away from their current budget to my software. So this may or may not be a path to pursue, but the great thing about Stanford is that there are so many opportunities that I feel the only limiting factor for me is time.

I'm sure I will be commenting more on this topic after my meeting Wednesday, but I also want to outline other ideas I would like to post in the near future:

-Takeaways from my Paths to Power class
-My research paper on local search
-Microfinance through Prosper.com
-What I learned at the Roads to Innovation Conference
-Tips for applying to business school, as well as studying for the GMAT--since I spent almost a year of my life doing it, I might as well share some insights :)

Cheers,
Justin